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Experts expect that the public service will shrink by as much as 100 000 posts, following budget cuts announced by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan last week.
The number of state officials in national departments is going to shrink by about 4.27%.
About 434 111 officials work in national departments, but in the next two years their numbers will shrink by 18 546.
Dr Michael Sachs, deputy director-general of national treasury and head of the budget office said: “Most of the cuts will be in health and education services, which are delivered at provincial and municipal level … in the coming months, the personnel reductions will be set out in their expenditure forecasts.”
There are, however, also cuts in provincial and municipal allocations, which will mean that personnel numbers in these parts of the public service will come under the same, if not more, pressure as the national department over the following two years.
The department of defence and the army will be worst hit – there will be a 15.48% reduction of 12 015 posts to a new total of 65 582 members. Additionally, 2 299 police posts will be cut (1.18%) and 1092 at correctional services (2.75%).
South Africa’s diplomatic corps will also shrink by 12%. The department of international relations and cooperation is losing 602 posts and will keep 4 404.
Gordhan’s own department will not be spared – even the national treasury, which is seen as one of the most effective departments, is going to lose 94 posts (7.7%) and keep 1 124.
But not all departments are shrinking.
The public works department is going to grow by 18.5% to 5368 posts – probably because the government decided to create more maintenance jobs at state buildings. This department was scaled down dramatically during the Thabo Mbeki-Trevor Manuel era.
The 18 controversial sector education and training authorities (Setas), which currently have 2 059 personnel members, will grow by 4.8%.
Setas fall under the department of higher education and training and are not managing to spend their budget, sourced from the skills development levy.
Treasury has, however, used the national skill funds, which is also financed from the skills levy, to reach its savings of R10.2 billion in the new financial year.
The savings are recorded as a reduction in the “expenditure ceiling”, an absolute limit on state expenditure – which has, over the past few years, been laid down in the budget and relentlessly enforced.
Apart from the expenditure ceiling, national treasury has also been forced to find R6.6 billion for additional expenses – mainly for higher education following the demands of students during the Fees Must Fall campaign.
The majority of the money will come from the national skills fund, which will be refinanced out of the skills levies, just like the Setas.
The financing of university education will in 2018-2019 again cause a budget deficit of R5.3 billion and, in 2019-2020, a deficit of R5.7 billion. Apart from the deficit, the government has already incurred R5 billion in additional obligations for higher education in 2019-2020.
“Other income sources” will be used for this, reads the overview of the budget.
The shortage can also be supplemented because treasury expects that social grants will grow more slowly over these years and that R2.1 billion less will be required for these purposes.
“We also have government’s contingency reserves of R9 billion that we can use in the next two years,” said Sachs. Of this, R4 billion will be used in the financial year and another R5 billion in the 2018-2019 financial year.
The contingency fund will in all probability be depleted after that, said Sachs.
