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Formal-sector jobs did not plummet in line with the negative economic growth reported for the South African economy in the first quarter this year.
The latest Quarterly Employment Survey from Stats SA, released this week, shows a decline of 15 000 jobs from the last quarter of last year. This is, in fact, smaller than the usual drop over the new year as the Christmas surge in retail and hospitality jobs dissipates.
It is nevertheless impossible to really gauge how the job market is doing because Stats SA has switched to a new, updated sample for the survey.
The new numbers don’t go back a full year yet, meaning that there are no year-to-year comparisons available.
However, the numbers that do exist show relatively strong job growth from June last year, or better than in the previous two years using the old series. Compared with the second quarter of last year, when the new series begins, jobs are up by 85 000.
Most of that comes from the community sector, which is dominated by government.
Formal-sector employment is now estimated to be 9.27 million – far more than the 8.99 million the old series yielded for the end of last year.
The same thing happened the last time Stats SA updated the sample of companies surveyed in December 2014.
The jump was more pronounced that time, when the break from one sample to the next led to an extra 408 000 workers.
Updating survey samples is a normal and necessary part of producing statistics, but the discontinuity shows how relatively meaningless small changes from quarter to quarter truly are, compared with underlying changes the surveys don’t necessarily pick up on.
According to Stats SA, the shifts can be due to actual changes in the economy, but also better compliance with registration requirements that allow companies to get picked up in the sample – which is based on the government’s business registry.
One sector that has seen its job numbers shoot through the roof, thanks to the new sample, is construction.
Construction jobs under the old series came to 471 000. Under the new series, that number is 13% higher at 533 000.
The other instance where the new sample caused a significant change is in the broad “financial and business services” sector, which encompasses everything from bankers to security guards and contract cleaners.
The workers in this category rose by 6%, or 116 000, to 2.125 million.
The mining sector’s employment is continuing its long-term descent and provided an estimated 455 000 jobs in the first quarter. That’s down 7% from a year earlier.
The all-important manufacturing sector, the target of most government planning and incentives, shed an estimated 11 000 jobs since the start of the new statistical series in the second quarter last year, bringing employment in the sector to 1.141 million.
