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The ANC and its main challengers have less than two years to persuade a large numbers of undecided voters to ultimately decide who will wield power in 2019 after an Ipsos voters survey showed that only 47% of the electorate currently support the governing party.
Although the ANC will be alarmed by the survey indicating that they have dropped to less than 50%, it will be comforted by the fact that its main rivals, the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters, are both not showing much growth since the last elections. In fact the DA, which obtained 22.23% in 2014, dropped to 21%, while the EFF, which gained 6.35% in 2014, now stands at 5%.
But the survey indicates a huge drop of support for the ANC from 62% to 47%.
Ipsos has warned that the survey should not be regarded as a predictor of 2019 elections, saying it is too far away.
The most interesting aspect of the survey is that 24% of those surveyed have not chosen a political party. This means these are potential voters up for grabs by any political party. How this 24% votes will ultimately decide if the ANC stays in power or whether opposition parties can increase their support to the point that they opt for a coalition government of opposition parties.
Another interesting piece of information is that the ANC would retain outright control of four provinces: KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, the Free State and the North West. These are the provinces currently seen in ANC dynamics as the ones most favourable to President Jacob Zuma and his favoured successor Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
In four other provinces, the ANC support is below 50%, but the opposition parties are not strong enough individually to challenge the governing party. These provinces are Gauteng, the Eastern Cape, the Northern Cape and Limpopo. The DA remains dominant in the Western Cape where they are projected at 47%
The poll was conducted from April 21 to May 22 this year. 3598 South Africans were interviewed.
A * on the table means that there was support expressed for the party in the particular province, but it was smaller than 1%.
