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Cards stacked against Zuma

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David Mahlobo
David Mahlobo

Intelligence Minister David Mahlobo (44) has emerged as the strongman in defence of a vulnerable President Jacob Zuma.

ANC insiders say that, as disenchantment with Zuma grows in the party ranks, Mahlobo, Police Minister Nathi Nhleko and the so-called Premier League have become his most dependable allies.

The Premier League is the informal title given to the powerful triumvirate of the premiers of Mpumalanga (David Mabuza), the Free State (Ace Magashule) and North West (Supra Mahumapelo).

Mahlobo is the most public face of Zuma’s defence; he rose to national prominence because he is Mabuza’s political protégé.

He:

.  Has taken a lead role in the standoff with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan;

. Has led the defence strategy in Parliament, both by jamming cellphone signals in 2015 and then securing Parliament this year in the face of growing protest against the president; and

. Took a lead role when students marched on Parliament in October;

Mahlobo was the first recipient of an “information note” from the Hawks, which revealed an SA Revenue Service (Sars) docket was ready to be submitted to the national director of public prosecutions for “further guidance” about the so-called rogue spy unit at Sars. It is believed he gave it to the president.

“He is the one cracking the whip on the Pravin matter,” said a source close to the intelligence services yesterday, adding that Mahlobo was “playing a very key role”.

However, those sympathetic to Mahlobo said it was common practice internationally for security-cluster ministers to work closely with their president.

Mahlobo was catapulted to the ANC’s national working committee (the party’s powerful 26-member inner-circle elite) last year despite a lobby against the decision from a number of people who had served in the party’s national executive committee (NEC) for years.

His position on the NEC was, in turn, sponsored by Mabuza and caused great unhappiness in Mpumalanga, where he comes from. Mahlobo is the son of chief Mandlenkosi Mahlobo, who recently had his chieftaincy of land straddling Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal restored.

From 2014, Mahlobo has informally been referred to in ANC circles as the “prime minister” because of his growing closeness with and proximity to Zuma.

Senior members of the country’s intelligence agencies and ANC intelligence veterans disapproved of Mahlobo’s appointment to the portfolio because of his inexperience. Mahlobo has brushed off criticism, saying he could not “hide” because he was “a politician and not an operative”.

One reason Zuma has turned to Mahlobo is because the former is in a weakened state. His trusted support from the SA Communist Party is crumbling after there was a threatened purge of the party’s leaders in a rumoured Cabinet reshuffle in December, which did not occur.

The party has led the lobby against the Gupta family, with whom the president and his family have close personal and commercial ties.

The December date known as “9/12”, when Nhlanhla Nene was sacked as finance minister and replaced by political lightweight Des van Rooyen, caused the economy to go into free fall.

This created angry ripples in the governing party, which grew into a wave over the past 10 days when a Hawks investigation into Gordhan splattered into the open, tanking the rand again. Zuma has taken a hands-off approach to the probe, refusing to veto it even though Gordhan was parachuted in to rescue the economy.

Senior ANC members believe the tensions have pitted Zuma against party secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, who, unlike Zuma, declared the ANC’s confidence in Gordhan.

On Wednesday, Mahlobo fronted a briefing during which he said the Hawks’ 27 questions about the alleged spy unit at Sars to Gordhan were intended for clarity and did not mean the minister was under investigation.

Mahlobo said it had to be established if intelligence laws had been breached through the unit’s alleged possession of surveillance equipment.

“When the investigation is advanced, a determination is going to be made to say whether the equipment which was there was in the hands of people authorised by law,” he said. “It’s not everyone who can buy a jammer, or surveillance equipment. There is clear legislation about who can have what.”

Escalating division around Zuma, which occasionally bursts into public view, has made clear the balance of forces.

A former ANC NEC member said senior ANC leaders were driving a “careful” lobby to obtain support for a motion to recall Zuma.

He declined to mention them by name, only saying that they were “honourable men”.

“People in the ANC are angry,” the former NEC member said. He said it would only take a debate in the NEC, in Zuma’s absence, and a resolution to remove him could be arrived at. “It is not magic. It is like removing the chairman of the board. But they have to lobby themselves to take a position,” he said.

Political analyst Ralph Mathekga said “Zuma had long surrounded himself with amateur intelligence”.

“It shows the kind of leadership Zuma comes from ... His administration has done that consistently. I don’t know if that is the panic or what,” he said. “But for them, everything else can be dealt with through security. I’m not even surprised they have already labelled the #FeesMustFall movement as being instigated by so-called third forces.”

All the president's people

Securocrats: Led by Intelligence Minister David Mahlobo and Police Minister Nathi Nhleko

Power: state security

Measure: maximum

State institutions: Hawks; SA Revenue Service; National Prosecuting Authority;

Power: security, investigative and prosecutorial

Measure: maximum

Premier League: DD Mabuza, Ace Magashule, Supra Mahumapelo

Power: big voting bloc in the ANC; huge provincial budgets

Measure: medium

The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal:

Power: largest voting bloc in the ANC – one in three party members

Measure: medium

Cabinet ministers: who owe fealty to the president, such as Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson, Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane and Cooperative Governance Minister Des van Rooyen

Power: control over key policy areas such as mining and energy

Measure: medium

The president’s disillusioned people

Gwede Mantashe: ANC secretary-general

Power: protests use of state power and Hawks investigation. Did not like axing of Nhlanhla Nene.

Holds the informal power of a prime minister. Measure: maximum

Pravin Gordhan: Treasury and finance minister

Power: purse-strings

Measure: maximum

ANC parliamentary caucus: MPs complained about Zuma’s U-turn at the Constitutional Court and his acceptance of the Public Protector’s powers after they worked to protect him

Power: legislative

Measure: minimum

SA Communist Party:

Power: vanguard

Measure: medium

Elders: Frank Chikane, Mavuso Msimang, Ahmed Kathrada, Barbara Hogan and others

Power: moral power and influence

Measure: medium

Cosatu:

Power: diminishing

Measure: minimum

Jessie Duarte: ANC deputy secretary-general

Power: ANC branches

Measure: maximum

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