Where SA is heading

This week, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) released its South African scenarios 2024, which shows that the country may experience a political turning point in the aftermath of the ANC’s 2017 national elective conference, at which a new leader for the party will be elected.

This report looks at what the country is likely to look like after the 2019 and 2024 elections, and also shows milestones and developments before then:

Important milestones on the road to 2024

• August 3 2016 provincial elections
• Possible ratings downgrade later this year or early 2017
• 2017: December – new ANC president or earlier if Zuma listens to calls for him to step down
• 2019 and 2024 – national and provincial elections are two points where we will begin to see the effect of generational change on voter behaviour. Born-frees will change election outcomes in greater volumes each year. These voters will demand parties that enable economic growth and wellbeing rather than one that echoes the sentiments of the Freedom Charter.
• Rise of voters who are impatient for change and who are more attracted to populist policies

Developments in the ANC are key

• The most important determinant of the country’s development will be developments within the ANC. A big moment will be the party’s 2017 elective conference
• Traditionalists in the ANC: those who were originally concerned about damage to their interests if Zuma steps down before 2019. They are socially conservative and subscribe to a nationalist or socialist economic pathway and have benefited materially from the status quo of South African politics
• Reformers: a growing educated, largely urban (multiethnic) group that is dissatisfied with the current political and economic trajectory. They are outside the current patronage circle and are motivated by a desire to shift the allocation of state resources closer to home. Largest constituency of reformers is in Gauteng

Bafana Bafana

• An uninspiring but most likely scenario
• Likely Zuma will step down as president once the ANC elects a new leader to avoid two centres of power
• ANC goes into 2019 polls with a new but uninspiring team
• ANC to obtain margin of 56% support in 2019 elections
• Expectations are that the ANC will fall below 50% in 2024 elections

Mandela Magic

• Rapid transition to a new leadership dominated by a reformist grouping
• Greatest potential economic and developmental benefits for the country
• The most positive election results for the ANC
• Sees support for the EFF eventually drop off on the understanding that many EFF supporters’ votes were actually a protest vote against the current leadership of the ANC
• ANC voters considering DA (particularly in Gauteng) may be persuaded to give the ANC a chance
• Won’t be smooth sailing. ANC will see revolt from those who lose their power and ability to access resources and some will rebel against the party’s more social-democratic policies
• Will occur without a change in the balance of forces in the ANC
• Will gain impetus from poor results by the ANC in August elections
• 2019: ANC gets 59% and goes to 57% in 2024

Nation Divided (worst-case scenario)

• ANC extends Zuma’s term to 2019 (aligning term of ANC president with that of country), or
• Traditionalists win in December 2017 by electing leadership that is committed to a vision of growth through redistribution. ANC emulates some of the populist policies espoused by the EFF
• ANC does better in 2019 (due to the short-term results of redistribution) but perform disastrously thereafter on the back of slow growth, large increases in poverty and unemployment, and even greater inequality
• The shift in ANC policies undercuts the EFF, which is unable to grow. In 2029, the DA is expected to emerge as the largest beneficiary
• Violence and protests continue as supporters are unwilling to accept the decline of the liberation party’s support