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President Jacob Zuma is on a suicidal mission and this time there is no turning back for him.
Even those who back him accept that he has taken a gamble with the move to fire Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, which has provoked “a bitter fight” that could see him swept away with the tide if he plays his cards badly.
If Zuma does not reshuffle because he is threatened by his colleagues in the ANC top six, the party’s alliance partners, big business and the opposition, then he might as well just resign.
His best bet is to forge ahead with his plans and, if he manages to thwart the backlash in the aftermath, then he would be stronger than ever.
He could become strong to the point of even declaring who he wants as his successor at the ANC’s December national elective conference and no one will dare challenge him.
The risk is much higher because if he loses the post-reshuffle battle he will be so weak the only option, again, would be for him to resign.
What is certain at the moment is that the stalemate is not helping anyone.
A close friend embedded in the ANC painted the last scenario better, saying that “the moment Zuma reshuffles Cabinet and kicks out Gordhan, look for Gwede and you will find him in Cape Town”.
His view is that the ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, is the only person standing between Zuma and his plans for the ANC and the government. And if anyone could be trusted to drive the ANC caucus in Parliament on a motion of no confidence against the Zuma, it is Mantashe.
In this scenario, Zuma gets rid of Gordhan and then the ANC caucus gets rid of Zuma through a motion of no confidence.
The opposition political parties already seem to be planning for this scenario. Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema told Gauteng’s Power FM talk radio station that his party was seeking legal advice on the option of a motion of no confidence against Zuma.
“This is the end of him. We must prepare ourselves for a new president,” said Malema.
Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane said on Thursday the party had “taken a decision to table a motion of no confidence in [Zuma] – in terms of Section 102 of the Constitution – following his now confirmed intention to fire [Gordhan] and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas”.
“I have therefore written to the Speaker of the National Assembly, Baleka Mbete, in this regard, indicating our intention to have the motion debated and voted on by Parliament once it is back in session,” said Maimane.
The irony here is that, despite Gordhan enjoying widespread support, his departure could ultimately fast-track Zuma’s exit.
So, Gordhan’s exodus may still not be a bad thing, after all.
There are those who say it is not about Gordhan but the Treasury as an institution.
“The question is what will happen to the Treasury if it falls in the wrong hands. The point is who is going to come and would he uphold the mandate of the office as expected,” says a Treasury insider.
But if Gordhan goes and Zuma follows, that question may no longer arise if the person who replaces Zuma has no appetite to fiddle with the Treasury.
That would be a win-win situation for everyone, wouldn’t it?
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