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When the bets are big, luck is not enough, and research and scientific analysis also fail to give the answer.
This is because statistics are like a G-string – what they reveal is amazing, but what they hide is where the real thing is.
A few years ago, Airbus launched the A380, which was deemed to be the future of flying – a floating heaven, complete with three-room apartments and en suite bathrooms.
The plane is certified to carry more than 800 passengers at a time, but it mostly flies 550. More room is needed for the optional extras for the good and the great.
It all began with congestion at airports. Airbus argued that there was a need for a super jumbo that would mop up thousands of passengers all at once.
It’s rival, Boeing, had a different approach.
It said Indian passengers flying to South Africa, for example, would prefer to fly directly to Durban, instead of flying to Johannesburg first and then taking a connecting flight.
The solution? Split them and have more direct flights, more often. To do this, one would need smaller planes that would fly more frequently to different cities.
How about helping your customers save money on fuel by building more efficient engines?
Make the airline’s passengers happier: give them more legroom and more headroom when they’re standing; make the windows bigger so more of them can appreciate the view outside; let them board and disembark faster; and help reduce queues at check-in.
Boeing’s answer was the 787 Dreamliner.
The A380’s sales have been disappointing.
Customers have been largely limited to those who have more oil than water, such as Etihad and Emirates, and those who owned colonies, such as British Airways and Air France, which can afford to build new and special hangers to house the planes.
The Dreamliner fits in the existing airport infrastructure, which is a plus as airports around the world are not too keen on investing in more projects that have no guaranteed return.
This has limited the routes flown by the A380, and put a further strain on sales.
It cost €15 billion (R229 billion) to develop the A380, and the story goes that the few customers who bought it were given massive discounts.
There is talk in the industry that Airbus plans to stop production of the A380 in the next two years.
But this doesn’t matter. When white elephants like that fail to fly, the big executives never lose their seats.
Governments simply fuel them with more cash in the form of many and different subsidies that will last for as long as there are citizens to pay tax.
Airbus’ philosophy of economies of scale seems to be failing. Boeing prefers the economies of technological innovation, and it seems to be winning the battle, at least as far as the Dreamliner and A380 product lines are concerned.
Bulk buying can never be the substitute for creativity, much as a cheque book can never be a replacement for the brain.
Most innovations require us to change the way we do things, but if the cost of change is too high and inconvenient, it’s guaranteed to fail.
In a world where incomes are rising, you cannot rely on the insights of the few. You need people who are able to learn and imagine a new world rather than depend on writing a cheque.
Kuzwayo is the founder of Ignitive, an advertising agency
