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Almost half of South Africans would vote for the ANC if the elections were held tomorrow, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the DA would be tied in second place with 11% each.
This is according to a survey conducted by Afrobarometer, a Pan-African organisation that measures the sociopolitical and economic atmosphere in more than 34 countries in Africa.
The organisation’s communications and advocacy officer Gugu Nonjinge on Wednesday said the survey was conducted among 1 800 adult South Africans who constituted a nationally representative sample.
The survey found that 48% of voters would vote for the ANC and the majority of the these people lived in rural areas.
Surprisingly, the survey shows that the ANC has its strongest support base in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and North West – provinces that have been at the centre of some of the worst cases of corruption over the past two years, which led to some of the provinces’ municipalities being placed under administration.
Eleven percent of the voters said they would vote for the EFF and the DA should the polls be conducted under this sociopolitical climate.
Afrobarometer’s data quality officer Jamy Felton said the majority of these parties’ voters lived in urban areas, who constituted of mainly younger South Africans compared with those likely to vote for the ANC.
The survey showed that the DA’s strongest support base was in the Western Cape, which is struggling with infighting and leadership issues.
According the results of the survey, the DA’s support base has dropped to about half of the 22% it obtained in the national elections in 2014.
Nonjinge said that, while conducting the survey, they also noticed that a majority of voters who said they would vote for the EFF where men, while those who strongly considered voting for the ANC were a fair mix of men and women.
She added that, although there was a 2.3% margin of error, Afrobarometer’s methodology was “nationally representative and the fieldwork was conducted through face-to-face interviews in the respondents’ language of choice, making it a fair representation”.
A concerning factor indicated by the survey was the rise in the number of people who said they had lost hope in the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) and state institutions, including the courts.
Only the office of the president showed positive growth.
The survey also showed that this distrust in the IEC had resulted in an increase of nonpartisan voters, and of those who were willing to trade elections for security, housings and jobs.
