Publications
Partners
With just over a week to go before election day next Wednesday, the latest Ipsos poll shows support for the governing ANC dropping to 56.92% from the 62.15% result it garnered in the 2014 elections. The DA could drop dramatically to 15% from the 22% it obtained in 2014.
According to the poll, support for the EFF could grow from the 6% it scored in the last elections to 9.45%. Support for the Inkatha Freedom Party is also projected to grow from 2.44% to 3%.
However, a poor turnout on election day could substantially benefit the ANC, whose support could go as high as 61%, while the DA would increase its result to 19% and the EFF would climb to 11%.
The Ipsos study was conducted between March and April with 3 600 respondents.
The Ipsos poll also found that trust in the ANC had jumped from 11% in November 2017 to the current 29%. Lack of trust in the DA and EFF deepened in the same period.
Ramaphosa remains the most trusted leader compared with DA leader Mmusi Maimane and EFF head Julius Malema for all registered voters. At plus-40% confidence, Ramaphosa contrasts sharply with Malema at minus 44% and Maimane at minus 37%.
South African voters have told Ipsos that finding a job is their most important concern.
Living conditions, the economy, safety, corruption and education also rank high.
More South Africans agreed with the sentiment that it was quite acceptable to turn to protest such as strikes and marches if you are dissatisfied with the standard of services in your community.
However 42% disagreed that violent protests were the only way to get service delivery, but a whopping 40% said violent protests were the way to go.
The trust index in the ANC by its own supporters has improved a lot since November 2017 (before Ramaphosa was elected) when it was at 72% to 85% where it currently is this month.
DA supporters’ trust in the party was at 87% in November 2017 and is still in the same position now, although it has gone up and down between that period.
Trust in the EFF by its supporters is the highest of all the three parties, having moved from 81% in November 2017 to 93% at the moment.
Factors that could affect the election results include loadshedding, the weather, voter turnout, protests, party campaigns and late swings.
