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Coalition deals may aggravate infighting, warn analysts

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Talks of possible coalitions to run municipalities after tomorrow’s elections are likely to worsen infighting and instability within political parties, analysts have warned. 

Ebrahim Fakir, a political analyst associated with the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (Eisa), said even though parties are making pronouncements against forming coalitions with certain parties, they may have to bite the bullet when the time comes. 

“It will obviously depend on the election results, but smaller parties and independents can play a big role. Coalitions will also depend on what parties want from each other.” 

Fakir said the horse trading that could follow could create tension within a political party and strengthen the hand of party bosses especially in situations where national leaders wanted to make certain concessions to gain bigger stakes. 

“These concessions can clash with what leaders at grassroots level want and can lead to political instability. Political parties will have to find a balance between the two.” 

He referred to what happened in Tshwane after the national ANC leadership brought in a mayoral candidate contrary to the wishes of locals. 

In the municipal elections in 2011 there were 35 coalition governments. In 2006 there were fewer than 10 municipalities that were run by coalitions. 

The most recent Ispos poll showed that 11% of voters were still undecided about who they would vote for. The African Christian Democratic Party led among smaller political parties in Tshwane – with 1.1%. 

Fakir says if this indecisiveness kept people away from the polls, it would benefit the opposition. 

According to Kevin Allan, an analyst at Municipal IQ, it was a foregone conclusion that the ANC would lose support at the ballot box, “but it would not lose as much as 20%, as had been predicted [in certain areas].” 

Allan also warned that the ANC might be caught on the back foot because Gwede Mantashe, ANC secretary-general, said the party would only decide on coalitions after the results. 

The Economic Freedom Fighters has been open about not forming a coalition with the ANC, and the EFF is seemingly not the Democratic Alliance’s first choice either. 

This leaves few alternatives as smaller parties’ joint support isn’t that significant. 

Allan said the percentage of indecisive voters could not be relied on, because studies of previous elections showed that figure became smaller as the election date drew nearer. 

“It is also usually aggrieved ANC members who would rather stay away from the polls, and who wouldn’t necessarily vote for other political parties.” 

About possible coalitions with smaller parties, Allan said it would depend what the larger party had to offer in exchange for cooperation. 

“Many of the smaller parties are also closer to the DA. It is also the DA who is the smaller parties’ biggest threat, not the ANC, because the DA is well adapt at hoovering up smaller opposition parties.” 

Allen said some coalitions may even hold a few surprises.

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