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More food price hikes in store

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parched land This dry mealie field illustrates just how desperate the situation in the country is
parched land This dry mealie field illustrates just how desperate the situation in the country is

South Africans will have to make do with less food for their festive season tables as the drought stretches into next year – spelling disaster for summer crops and causing the price of food to rise even further.

Meat prices are set to rise even beyond 2017, and key staples such as maize and sugar will remain high after the rains come because crops have to recover from the worst drought since the 1980s.

Although the El Niño weather phenomenon that caused the drought has now dissipated, rain will only start falling in mid-summer – not October as expected – because the rain-bringing weather phenomenon, La Niña, has yet to appear.

SA Weather Service meteorologist Cobus Olivier said their forecast showed the country would get rain in January.

“We expect drier and warmer conditions until the end of the year. After that, there will be chances of above-normal rainfall,” he said.

“This is not a certain forecast. We’re cautiously optimistic because we don’t have supporting information. We’re not sure if we’ll go into the La Niña stage,” he added.

AgriSA deputy executive director Christo van der Rheede said they were excited at the possibility of La Niña, but worried about the amended forecast bringing further disaster for farmers.

Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) lead economist Wandile Sihlobo said that, even after the rains come, meat prices would rise because “farmers will be slaughtering less while rebuilding their herds”.

“In a normal year, 6 500 cattle are slaughtered weekly in South Africa. This year, it was 16 500 cattle a week, which subdued prices. Meat is the key thing that will drive food inflation in the next year. Sugar will not decrease a lot because it will take time to recover,” Sihlobo said.

And it’s not only the price of meat that will be affected.

Van der Rheede said: “We may possibly only have big rains in January or February. This poses an additional threat, as the planting season in the summer rainfall areas is in October/November, and if we do not have rain in the planting season, we will face a big challenge, especially in terms of maize production.

“Farmers now run the risk of losing a second or third year of production output, which poses serious implications for their cash flow and ability to honour their debt on production loans and land bonds, as well as their ability to pay the wages of their farm workers.

“Farmers who plant under irrigation now also face severe water restrictions.”

The AgriSA Drought Fund has so far collected
R16 million in donations, which has helped 12 921 commercial farmers and 4 000 emerging farmers to provide animal feed and food parcels to poor farmers in drought-stricken areas of the country.

Agbiz says the country needs to import 2.7 million tons of maize – 1.8 million tons of yellow maize for animal feeds and just more than 840 000 tons of white maize for people – from countries such as Mexico and the US.

Agbiz international trade and investment intelligence head, Tinashe Kapuya, said South Africa had already imported 345 000 tons of white maize this year (95% from Mexico and 5% from the US), 41% of projected requirements.

“The planting season has already commenced in parts of Mpumalanga. The planting window will open for the western parts of the country between November 15 and December 15 – and we expect to receive normal to above normal rains this summer,” he said.

Food prices, Kapuya, said, would remain high until April, when the summer crop is harvested.

Agbiz’s inflation report last month found food prices rose 13.4% this year – fuelled by rises in grain products such as bread, vegetable oil, vegetables and sugar.

Vegetable prices, Agbiz found, rose by 20%.

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Poor families struggle to make ends meet

Figures gathered by the Pietermaritzburg Agency for Community Social Action 2016 Food Price Barometer show just how poor families are struggling to put food on the table.

The agency tracks a basket of 36 basic staple foods.

Its report was released on Friday morning and coincides with World Food Day, which is celebrated today.

It found that poor households “forgo, reduce or buy much cheaper, poorer-quality essential foods such as meat, vegetables and dairy products”.

“Low-income households are really struggling. The price of food in the baskets of these households increased sharply from November last year, when the drought started to have an impact,” the agency found.

“Women have expressed that they cannot make it through the month on the money they earn. They are really struggling to keep households functioning and put food on the table.”

Between September last year and last month, the price of a basic basket of food increased by an average of 15.1% – R243.63 in rand value, from R1 616.97 to R1 860.60.

But staple foods, which low-income earners cannot do without, increased by 25%, or R120.54. They cost R602.45 last month, up from R481.91 a year ago.

One of the biggest culprits was maize meal – a 25kg bag of which increased in price by 32.2% from R170.80 last year to R225.82 this year.

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