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Why the ANC dropped by 10% in KZN

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The community of Mtwalume make their way to the voting station for the 2019 May elections. ***Photo SIBUSISO NDLOVUPHOTO:
The community of Mtwalume make their way to the voting station for the 2019 May elections. ***Photo SIBUSISO NDLOVUPHOTO:

Voters gatvol over service delivery problems stayed away or spoiled their votes in numbers to give the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) a bloody nose, while an energetic EFF added to the ruling party’s pain.

Support for the ANC in KZN in the national poll fell nearly 10 percentage points, from 65.31% in the 2014 poll to this week’s 55.47%. And the ruling party’s reduced share of the vote in the country’s second most populous province had a knock-on effect on its overall national result.

The ANC pinpointed voter “disillusionment” over municipal service delivery in Durban and Pietermaritzburg as being at the heart of its woes.

In the Msunduzi municipality, where the collapse of services forced the provincial government to appoint an administrator last month, support for the ANC has fallen from 72.06% five years ago to 64.33%.

Read: IFP is determined to guard its votes, take out the ‘enemy’ and regain KZN

Things were even worse in eThekwini – down from 65.39% to 55.55% – and because of the metro’s population, it contributed nearly 1.4 million of the about 3.7 million votes cast in KZN, the consequences for the governing party were all the more serious.

Similar trends emerged on the province’s populous north and south coasts, with the EFF appearing to be the biggest beneficiary.

These were all areas where the ANC polled strongly under former president Jacob Zuma, but this week it was payback time for the “nine wasted years”, as President Cyril Ramaphosa has labelled his predecessor’s time in office.

In KZN, results in the provincial poll largely mirrored voting patterns in the national poll.

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The ANC’s majority fell to 54.21%, down from 64.52%, while the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) rallied to emerge as the official opposition, a position it had lost to the DA in 2014.

The IFP, which has been on the wane in previous elections, took 16.34% of the provincial ballot on Wednesday – up from 10.86% in 2014.

The DA’s performance was underwhelming; it picked up a few thousand extra national votes in KZN and improved in the provincial poll by just more than one percentage point, which was insufficient to head off the IFP in the race for second place.

But the degree to which the changing fortunes of the province’s major parties can be attributed to the efforts of their rivals or blamed on their own failings remains moot.

The ANC preferred to look to itself than to the credit of the men and women in red berets.

In eThekwini we are seeing a decline in voter turnout… The recent strike that affected provision of water had a negative effect on the ANC

Provincial secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli told City Press the ANC was disappointed with the result and it amounted to a “stayaway”, reflecting disillusionment among some supporters.

“In eThekwini we are seeing a decline in voter turnout… The recent strike that affected provision of water had a negative effect on the ANC,” he said.

Independent Electoral Commission figures showed turnout in the metro was just below 70%, down from about 78% in 2014.

Ntuli spoke about service delivery problems in Umlazi, where “many ANC supporters did not go to vote as expected” in the province’s biggest township.

A similar story prevailed in Pietermaritzburg and the South Coast, he said.

He promised that the party would be asking tough questions of itself and holding accountable cadres who had let the party down.

Young people were increasingly voting for parties they felt best represented their interests

Celebrations rather than recriminations were the order of business for the EFF. The fighters took 9.96% of the national vote in KZN, up from 1.97% in 2014.

“How did we do it? Hard work,” said Vusi Khoza, EFF provincial chairperson.

The party drew on the energy of its youthful supporters and built a campaign around its constituency’s key concerns, land and jobs, Khoza said

IFP secretary-general Velenkosini Hlabisa insisted the party’s good showing was less about the declining fortunes of the breakaway National Freedom Party, than the IFP’s success in forging party unity.

“We were solid and we managed to do groundwork,” said Hlabisa, promising better things in the 2021 municipal elections.

Belinda Johnson, a public policy and political analyst at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said young people were increasingly voting for parties they felt best represented their interests while older voters, who had in the past cast ballots on the basis of party loyalty “will just not vote when they feel they are let down”.

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