Publications
Partners
Leaders must find ways to harness tech to create work prospects, write Themba Moleketi and Duduetsang Mokoele
The correlation between the labour market and unemployment is not as linear as we are made to believe.
Official statistics place national unemployment at about 27%; among the youth, 36% are unable to take advantage of their most productive years.
With the country experiencing a demographic dividend, our levels of youth unemployment are of major concern, especially when we look at the stagnation and contraction of the labour market.
South Africa’s case is further complicated by the structural nature of the unemployment.
For instance, regardless of cyclical economic performance, job opportunities do not increase fast enough to absorb new entrants into the labour market or absorb the already unemployed.
There are a number of contributing factors to this predicament, such as the use of capital- or skill-intensive technology (a lesson to take heed of in the fourth industrial revolution) or an inflexible labour market.
In this context, job seekers find themselves in a straitjacket which severely hampers their best efforts to find jobs.
The precariousness facing the focus group of unemployed youth – a group run by the Indlulamithi SA Scenario 2030 project – shed light on this inescapable reality in relation to the run-up to the elections and the many promises of addressing structural unemployment.
Indlulamithi participants approached the debate from the perspective of the country’s economy and which structure would be most suitable to address the issue.
A major point of contention proved to be deliberations on the ideal orientation of the economy, and whether it ought to be labour or capital intensive.
Debates exposed a multitude of perspectives, which, in turn, revealed the complexity of the issue.
Some Indlulamithi participants argued that since a high proportion of the population is low- or semi-skilled, it presents a base that requires a labour-intensive economy.
But there were those who argued that the inevitability of the fourth industrial revolution presents the developing world with an opportunity to jump-start and accelerate developmental projects, with the hope of associated developmental benefits.
What does taking advantage of the fourth industrial revolution look like? Historically, at the base of the industrial revolution was the exploitation of labour.
Advancements in technology allowed for a greater efficiency of process that transformed economies, with human capital remaining central.
This provided the opportunity for simultaneous, incremental developments of both the economy and society, manifested first in the development of labour-intensive light manufacturing (textile industries) and then in a transition to capital-intensive, heavy manufacturing.
The benefit of earlier industrialisation was not only economic but also allowed society time to reorientate and upskill.
The fourth industrial revolution presents a unique, unprecedented situation. This revolution, for the first time in history, is not based on a human labour force to push it forward.
This leaves the country in a quandary, because the associated leap in technological advancement does present opportunity – but because of our demographic circumstances, it is an opportunity for only a tiny proportion of our population, who are ready for this shift.
Therein lies the importance of proactive interventions and of planning to mitigate the risks associated with the transition.
Without these, the majority of society is left in a dangerously precarious position, with only the illusion of opportunity.
The upcoming elections have seen the launch of political party manifestos that promise to address the age-old issue of structural unemployment.
This election provides an opportunity to develop or measure government’s short- to medium-term strategies to address the issue.
Or, in the spirit of Congolese writer VY Mudimbe’s “colonial library”, we are in danger of adding to the infamous “electioneering” manifesto library, littered with terms that the electorate suspects to be devoid of substance and practicality, and articulated to reproduce the status quo.
Moleketi and Mokoele are researchers at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection
TALK TO US
How do you think the fourth industrial revolution can be used to benefit more than just the few?
SMS us on 35697 using the keyword JOBS and tell us what you think. Please include your name and province. SMSes cost R1.50. By participating, you agree to receive occasional marketing material
