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Using the Trends acronym – technology, retail, economy, natural world, diplomacy and sociocultural – Flux Trends provides a glimpse of the key trends for this year across six sectors.
They are a sample of a broader selection of trends that Flux will unpack at its annual trend presentation, The State We’re In, which kick-starts the year.
This year’s presentation is titled Aftershocks and Blowbacks: Adapting to Bombardment Stress. It is a follow-on to last year’s edition, Through a Different Lens, which centred on issues of identity, such as gender, race and culture.
Next year is seen as a landmark for various global policy and technology developments, even as the world struggles to recalibrate from the political, economic and sociocultural upheavals of 2017.
While the world moves from diversity to tackling inclusivity, there is a more ominous threat looming – a disturbing confluence of technology, business and government.
Things are about to get more complicated.
Technology – urban air mobility
While self-driving taxi services are set to become a reality in Phoenix, US, as well as in Helsinki, Finland, this year, discussions about passenger drones, the next frontier of urban mobility, are already taking place.
Through a report titled Unmanned Traffic Management, Airbus is already assessing the increase in commercial air traffic in the next few years.
By the end of 2017, about 15 companies had completed test flights of their passenger drones. Airbus is working on three models, while Liberty Pioneer offered presales of its model last year.
While we won’t be seeing airborne taxis this year, it is the year that legislators, city planners and developers actively plot the future of urban air mobility.
Uber is working with Nasa on its air taxi service, Uber Elevate. Nasa will use Uber’s data to simulate how small passenger drones navigate urban air space, specifically in Los Angeles and Dallas, two cities in the US that have agreed to host early tests of Uber’s air service.
The Indian government has also approved a passenger drone policy, making Mumbai the first city in India to accommodate air taxis.
In Miami in the US, property developer Dan Kodsi started modifying a 60-storey high-rise to accommodate a rooftop sky port in preparation for VTOL – vertical take-off and landing – the technology used by all flying taxis. Urban rooftops are set to become a prized commodity for property owners and developers.
Retail – morality marketing
The era of brand activism is evolving fast. Brands are no longer showing their sociopolitical stance as a reaction to an event or crisis – instead, brand value and reputation are being built via a different customer experience.
Last year, UK football club Chelsea began reprimanding fans for bad behaviour. The club announced that any fan found guilty of anti-Semitic behaviour would be given “the opportunity” to visit a concentration camp for an educational rehabilitation course or face being banned from attending matches for three years.
After Colin Kaepernick’s much-publicised kneeling protests during the US national anthem at football games, Nike anticipated its campaign would unleash a social media storm.
The reactions were unsurprisingly extreme, with applause on the one hand and condemnation on the other. In a humorous response, the brand released a safety guide for people who wanted to protest by burning their Nike merchandise.
These responses show how brands are becoming unapologetic about their social stance regardless of the backlash. It’s no longer a case of sticking one’s neck out, but rather a moral anchor in a world with complex and ever-changing undercurrents.
Move over brand activism, hello morality marketing.
Economy – digital services tax
The worlds of business, technology and politics collide as governments threaten a digital services tax for the world’s tech giants. Many of these companies use loopholes in international tax systems so that they are taxed in jurisdictions with low tax rates.
As an interim measure, before it embarks on sweeping reforms, the European Commission plans to tax tech companies with total annual worldwide revenues of €750 million (R11.98 billion) or EU revenues of €50 million.
The 3% levy will be collected where the revenue is generated, rather than where the companies are domiciled for tax purposes.
But not all EU members agree. While countries such as Ireland, Sweden and Denmark are opposed to the proposal, arguing that the tax would exacerbate trans-Atlantic trade tensions as many of the tech giants are American, other members argue that the levy should be increased to 5%.
The UK and Spain are already forging ahead with their own frameworks. The UK plans to introduce a temporary service tax from April 2020, post Brexit, while Spain plans to implement a 5% levy on foreign and Spanish companies’ digital services, making it the first country to implement a legislated digital services tax.
Natural world – the war on plastic
Last year’s main statistic was “90.5% – the proportion of plastic waste that has never been recycled”. This year, the battle against plastic escalates into a war as the narrative shifts from consumer awareness to government legislation.
By next year, the French government plans to have implemented a law that will ensure all plastic cups, cutlery and plates will be made of bio-based material that can be composted.
Rwanda, Morocco and Kenya are gradually reaping the benefits of legislating a ban on plastic bags. Regarded as a harsh measure, Kenyans found to be using, selling or producing plastic bags face up to four years in prison or a fine of $40 000 (R558 198).
Other east African countries such as Tanzania, Burundi and Uganda may follow suit.
Such legislation forces brands to take a stronger stance on their contribution to pollution and sustainability, specifically their packaging.
While plastic straws and products containing microbeads were targeted last year, this year sees other plastic products we seldom think about – from contact lenses to balloons – being pulled into the war zone.
Diplomacy – surveillance state
Do you always feel like somebody’s watching you? That uneasy feeling is a reality. While we’ve realised that we’ve become “the product” in data exchange with tech companies, governments are now jumping on the personal data bandwagon – and the trajectory is dystopian and terrifying.
China leads the way, aiming to document each of its citizens via facial recognition by 2023. Zimbabwe also plans to use facial recognition at its border posts.
If you’re entering New Zealand, be prepared for a “digital strip search”. The country’s new customs law requires travellers to not only hand over their devices if asked to do so, but also to grant access to them. Refusal comes with a $5 000 fine.
Interpol has started amassing an international voice biometrics database that will be shared among global police agencies.
There is, however, growing resistance to these developments. Various organisations are calling for the regulation of facial recognition technology, as well as for people to retain ownership of their data.
Microsoft has called for the US to start implementing laws on the use of facial recognition technology, while there’s been a backlash against Amazon for selling its facial recognition program Rekognition to the US.
The digital privacy and data ownership uprising has begun.
Sociocultural – identity politics
If 2017 was the catalyst, last year was the sociocultural awakening – from woke to wide awake, as Flux Trends put it. This year, the call for inclusivity, individualism and safe spaces will grow even louder.
In reaction to the #MeToo movement, tech innovators are creating consent apps for sexual intercourse. Apps like uConsent, YesMeansYes and LegalFling ask the user to confirm that they consent to sexual activity with another user. It’s a passion killer, but one of the harsh realities of the zeitgeist.
In terms of gender politics, apps are being designed to help people unlearn gender stereotypes by altering keywords via predictive text.
Many people communicate differently to children depending on their gender, which means that girls, specifically, are likely to have internalised gender stereotypes by the age of six.
Independent development and humanitarian organisation for child rights Plan International, in partnership with Samsung, is trying to change that with its predictive text app Sheboard.
The app’s byline, Raised by Words, aims to increase awareness about the impact of gendered speech as you type.
Chang is the founder of Flux Trends. This year’s trend briefing will take place next month. Register for notifications at fluxtrends.com
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