Opinion: Zuma will stay his term

Although the ANC is a governing party reliant entirely on popular support to stay in power, it is, oddly enough, an inward-looking political party.

First and foremost, it thinks about its dominance, unity and cohesiveness. When major calls are made by the rest of society for it to act in one way or the other, the question that occupies the party is: What is in the interests of the ANC?

So, when President Jacob Zuma says the ANC is more important than the country, he may come across as callous and tactless, but he correctly captures the spirit that guides the party.

Even when there is a cacophony of voices for Zuma to be recalled, the ANC will consider what is in its best interests as it is about to fight the local government elections. Can it afford an image of a party that is at war with itself? Clearly not.

When Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas publicly confirmed that the Gupta family had offered him the finance minister job, many South Africans thought this was the gotcha moment against Zuma – finally, the smoking gun needed to nail the president had been fired.

Former MP Vytjie Mentor also confirmed such approaches and former public enterprises minister Barbara Hogan not only confirmed it, but went further.

“This is a defining moment. This cannot be swept under the carpet,” she told Eyewitness News.

“The ANC’s NEC has a historical mission like never before. It has to deal with this rot. It has to clear it out.”

There was also a telling interview last week when ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe said it was not up to him to fire the president.

He was asked during Justice Malala’s show on eNCA why the party didn’t just fire the president. Instead of reacting defensively, like the party always has, his response did not rule out the possibility.

With all of this, you would have thought Zuma was truly on his way out. But the ANC works in mysterious ways, and they don’t always make sense to outsiders.

Even if he survives this pressurised weekend, nothing will stop Zuma staying until the end of his term – unless he personally decides to clear the way for his successor after the party congress next year.

The short-term casualties of this battle will be the Guptas, from whom Zuma will want to be seen to be keeping his distance.

Tabane is City Press assistant editor of politics