The year that rocked the vote

I am generally suspicious of any person who has all the answers to all our problems in life.

Similarly, I am hesitant to accept single truths. I always believe that all things in life are more complicated than they seem and universal answers or truths are just never adequate.

So, when there is only one narrative following the elections, I feel compelled to point out my own observations.

The fact is that ANC voters did not pitch up last Wednesday. The party had enough voters to ensure that the ANC kept the wards in its strongholds. But just barely.

In contrast, the DA voters in the suburbs turned up in droves to ensure that their party did not only win the wards, but that their proportional votes were made to count in the final tally. This was undoubtedly the story of these elections.

I think we should be careful to play up DA leader Mmusi Maimane as the Messiah who saved the DA, as the man who confounded his critics by leading the DA to a massive win.

I have just read the book Mmusi Maimane: Prophet or Puppet? by Sthembiso Msomi and I feel I have a more sympathetic understanding of why he ended up in the DA and why he cannot be dismissed as a puppet.

But let us not get carried away. The DA has always been on a growth trajectory if we consider the past three elections (local and national). So, the growth was almost inevitable, Maimane or no Maimane.

In fact, in 2011, DA support grew from 16.3% in 2006 to 24.3%, which is far higher (7 percentage points) than the current growth (3 percentage points).

And it should be noted that the DA still has a long way to go before capturing the hearts of black voters in the townships. I find it staggering that while the DA increased its support in Cape Town to a massive 66.6%, it could still not manage to win a single ward in the townships surrounding the Mother City.

The ANC won all these wards, despite its support declining because of its voters not turning up. The DA still has a lot of work to do come 2019.

As for the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), many make much of the fact that they did not win a single municipality.

I did not expect the party to win any municipality and its own leaders refrained from making predictions about winning any local councils.

However, EFF leader Julius Malema created expectations by stating before the elections that if the party failed to triple its support from the 2014 elections, it would have failed in its projection of doing well in the 2019 national elections.

The EFF’s 2% growth falls far short of the stated goal of tripling support and is in fact a monumental failure.

The EFF is a small party whose popularity is mainly centred on the charm and popularity of its leader.

It is a party always geared to perform better in a national election – where Malema is the central character – than in a local election, where voters are exposed to its range of youthful, wet-behind-the-ears candidates who still have work to do before they can capture the popular imagination.

Under the circumstances, the EFF did as well as it could.

The ANC should worry about the trend seen in the Western Cape. Once voters ditch you in one election, the trend is likely to continue in future elections.

Once they have unshackled themselves from rewarding the ANC for the liberation, most voters don’t look back.

It should be concerned that it lost support even in traditional strongholds like Limpopo, the Free State and eThekwini.

However, of considerable comfort for the ANC is that its voters chose to stay at home, instead of opting for other parties. Theoretically at least, this means it is possible that those voters could still be wooed back.

The governing party has consequently promised to “introspect” after these elections. But what does that mean? Does it become more responsive to public concerns? Does it crack down on corruption?

Does it ask its president to quietly “volunteer” to step down? Besides, any hope of introspection leading to any actual action is likely to be hampered by preoccupation with the race to elect the next ANC president next year.

My hope is that for all of these parties, the lesson learnt is that voters are a precious lot.

You bid for their support. Not only two months before the elections, but throughout your five years in office.